Legislative Intelligence

What's happening in the Illinois General Assembly right now.

Model Confidence: RELIABLE ROC-AUC 0.947 · Last backtest: 62% accurate
9680 bills scored · 4 voting blocs · 107 anomalies flagged

Bills to Watch

Open bills with the most interesting ML signals — high confidence forecasts, surprise predictions, and bills at critical junctures.

→ Floor 71%

HB4677

LOCAL GOVERNMENT-TECH

Robert "Bob" Rita In Committee
Surprise: still in In Committee but 71% chance of advancing
Stuck 99%

SB0206

MEDICAID-HYPOALLERGENIC FORMLA

Doris Turner Passed Committee
Warning: reached Passed Committee but model predicts stall (99% confidence)
Stuck 99%

SB1575

COMMUNITY COLLEGE CERT

Doris Turner Passed Committee
Warning: reached Passed Committee but model predicts stall (99% confidence)

Power Movers

Legislators with the highest true influence — combining bill effectiveness, network position, swing votes, and ML-predicted sponsor pull.

#1 Moderate

Napoleon Harris, III

Democrat · Senate District 15

49
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness)
#2 Moderate

Laura M. Murphy

Democrat · Senate District 28

47
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness) Bills they sponsor outperform predictions (positive pull)
#3 Moderate

Sara Feigenholtz

Democrat · Senate District 6

46
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness) Bills they sponsor outperform predictions (positive pull)
#4 Moderate

Suzy Glowiak Hilton

Democrat · Senate District 23

46
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness) Bills they sponsor outperform predictions (positive pull)
#5 Moderate

David Koehler

Democrat · Senate District 46

46
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness)
#6 Moderate

Julie A. Morrison

Democrat · Senate District 29

45
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness) Bills they sponsor outperform predictions (positive pull)
#7 Moderate

Martin J. Moylan

Democrat · House District 55

44
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness) Bills they sponsor outperform predictions (positive pull)
#8 Moderate

Meg Loughran Cappel

Democrat · Senate District 49

43
Bridges legislative blocs (high betweenness) Bills they sponsor outperform predictions (positive pull)

Coalition Landscape

4 voting blocs discovered by ML. These are groups of legislators who consistently vote together.

Consensus Democrat Transportation & Labor Bloc

81 members 81D / 0R Cohesion: 100%
Transportation Labor Commerce
Top influencer: Martin J. Moylan

Consensus GOP-Leaning State Government & Healthcare Bloc

22 members 2D / 20R Cohesion: 96%
State Government Healthcare Education
Top influencer: Meg Loughran Cappel

Consensus Democrat Insurance & Finance & Housing Bloc

37 members 37D / 0R Cohesion: 100%
Insurance & Finance Housing Education
Top influencer: Napoleon Harris, III

Republican Transportation & Healthcare Bloc

40 members 0D / 40R Cohesion: 98%
Transportation Healthcare State Government
Top influencer: Brad Stephens

Anomaly Alert

Bills with suspicious witness slip patterns that may indicate coordinated campaigns.

HB2827 HOMESCHOOL ACT single org files 81% of slips; near-unanimous position (>95% one side); very low org diversity (4.5%); high org concentration (HHI=0.66) 133746 slips
HB1402 $CDB-J’VILLE DEVELOP CTR single org files 92% of slips; names appear 6.0x on avg; high org concentration (HHI=0.85) 12 slips
HB1390 MOTOR FUEL-VARIOUS single org files 80% of slips; names appear 5.0x on avg; near-unanimous position (>95% one side); high org concentration (HHI=0.68) 10 slips
HB1092 PROP TX-SENIOR FREEZE single org files 70% of slips; near-unanimous position (>95% one side); high org concentration (HHI=0.54) 10 slips
HB3853 PROTECT MEDICAL EQUIP FREEDOM single org files 79% of slips; near-unanimous position (>95% one side); high org concentration (HHI=0.63) 2718 slips